What’s happening in the Australian economy & hospitality industry? May 18, 2020

Figures of relevance to restaurants, cafes & foodservice, plus measures of the wider economic impact of COVID-19. Areas covered may vary week to week…

Hospitality Figures & Trends:

How many hospitality businesses have closed? Numbers vary – on a Restaurant & Catering Australia webinar on 13 April, the figure was given as 25%. Food Industry Foresight research group said (5 May 2020) that “45% of cafes and restaurants are closed. 84% of cafes & restaurants said their turnover had declined ‘dramatically’ to 0-40% of pre-COVID levels, and employment levels cut by 41% for cafes and 36% for restaurants.”

Heavy falls in shutdown-affected categories: gyms, public transport, travel, pubs & venues (-77%) and cafes (-36%). Stimulus has boosted some categories: online retail and subscription services, food delivery(+258%), pet care and supermarkets. (Illion)

National ANZ-observed dining expenditure is now 30% lower than same time last year, an improvement from -54% y/y for the week ending 16 April.

General Economic Figures and Trends:

Economist Stephen Koukoulas summarises the unemployment figues released last week:

  • 832,500 people unemployed.
  • 1,816,000 people underemployed.
  • 554,000 additional people have given up looking for a job with the workforce participation rate diving 2.5 percentage points in the last two months.
  • This is more than 3,200,000 people.

500,000 jobs were lost in April; and number of people employed in Australia dropped by 600,000 between March and April. The under-utilisation rate jumped to 20% – people who would like more work than they currently have. It’s been around 15% for the last 4 years. Had the increase in the number of people who were not in the labour force been a further increase in unemployment, the unemployment rate would have increased to around 9.6%. (ABS)

Clearly JobKeeper is working to keep people off the unemployment lists, but recent government hints that it would be discontinued or limited are causing great anxiety amongst restaurant & cafe operators.

Consumer spending (4-10 May): total spending per person now 7% below normal levels. Spending was boosted in the last week by the Coronavirus supplement (doubling of unemployment benefit and youth allowance) as well as the first easing of restrictions.

Super Fund Withdrawals: these are clearly having a substantial positive impact on spending – withdrawals of up to $10,000 are available before 30 June, and another $10,000 after: “More than 975,000 people registered their interest to withdraw their super early, though not everyone is expected to be approved. While the Treasury forecast that around 1.6 million people will likely make a claim totalling $27 billion, estimates among industry funds have forecast that figure to be closer to $65 billion.” Investment Magazine.

Sources: ANZ Research, Aust Bureau of Statistics, illion/Accenture, Food Industry Foresight and Stephen Koukoulas.